Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
